ASEAN and the South China Sea in the eye of the beholder

The South China Sea is a thorn in the flesh for ASEAN.

The story so far:

The sea contains lots of international shipping lanes, lots of fish, and probably lots of hydrocarbons, and six states lay claim to all or part of it: China, Taiwan, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.

A “Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea” was signed in 2002, but the problem was never really solved, and has come roaring back in recent years. Chinese maps continue to depict an ominous tongue-shaped line that appears to be licking up most of the sea, and there has been some fairly rough argy-bargy between various claimants, with high levels of nationalism and provocative acts on all sides.

Since the middle of 2010, and a stormy meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the US has also been outspokenly involved. It lays no claim to any of the sea, but has declared its interest in protecting the international character of this busy stretch of water, and – somewhat disingenuously – has offered to mediate.

The US was encouraged to take this stance by some of the ASEAN countries, particularly Viet Nam. And it is clear that Chinese action, in the months leading up to Hillary Clinton’s resolute speech, had worried its smaller southern neighbours considerably, apparently undoing years of patient “charm diplomacy” on China’s part.

But, of course, inviting your giant cousin into the dispute carries its own risks as well. Are some of the parties now more ready to be less diplomatic with China, feeling that they have a big protector at their back? Will the US use this leverage to push its way further into SEA’s affairs than the region will ultimately feel comfortable with? Will rivalry between the US and China make escalation in the South China Sea even more likely?

These and other questions will not be answered in this post.

What this post is interested in is the tone of the commentary about the latest moves to solve – or at least calm – the dispute.

In the ARF meeting at the end of July this year, ASEAN and senior Chinese ministers endorsed "Guidelines on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea". Here are some of the reactions:

Joshua Kurlantzick is keen to deflate any celebration over the "vaguely worded" deal. Luke Hunt is similarly unimpressed with an agreement "to agree on what they had agreed to previously".

But Ernie Bower notes the "markedly different" narrative and "more cooperative tone" in this year's ARF. Rodolfo Severino, whose former position as ASEAN secretary-general gives him plenty of insight into diplomatic nuance, recognizes "progress of sorts". Clearly, the proof of this knotty pudding will be in the eating, but the guidelines represent "a step forward".

The comments that have struck me the most are these:

Mark Valencia, who has dealt extensively with this dispute over the years, acknowledges the limitations of the deal, but describes the outcome as "unfairly maligned" and – in light of the tense climate in the lead-up to the meeting – "uplifting".  "Even if the forward movement is small and fragile," he writes, "it is in the right direction." He too acknowledges that we are far from the end of the story, but "this crisis brought out the best in many of the countries involved and that bodes well for Asia’s future".

And The Economist, while beginning and ending its piece with the usual swipes at the "ASEAN way" and firing off plenty of shots on the way, points to "noticeable movement" on the South China Sea. "Rapid progress" it isn't. But:

"That ASEAN enables them to try to negotiate from a less weak position is an achievement for the organisation. So is its provision of a forum where regional-security concerns can at least be raised, and where, in the margins, useful bilateral talks can be held."

High praise indeed, coming from The Economist...

In my research into ASEAN, one of the phrases I heard most often was the "glass-half-empty or glass-half-full" metaphor. Truly, the success of ASEAN and its efforts are in the eye of the beholder.