More on the non-communiqué

So we don’t have a communiqué, but we do now have a statement on “ASEAN’s Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea”.

The dust has still to settle, however.

Bunn Nagara adopts a phlegmatic stance, accusing us all of worrying far too much over this blessed communiqué.

I disagree with him here – I think it’s an important wake-up call to all ASEAN’s member countries to keep a sharp eye out for divide-and-rule and unite-and-rule tactics, both from inside and outside the Association.

But I do agree with him on this point:

“Cynics predicting doom-and-gloom scenarios for ASEAN forget that its watchword has always been ‘resilience’, as supported by its near-half-century record. ASEAN is made of sterner stuff, to which its experience testifies. But ASEAN is also not immune to the pitfalls of complacency. Failure to do what is needed now can escalate current challenges and lead to more problems in the future.”

His pull-no-punches comments on Philippines diplomacy (to some extent backed by domestic players) also make a refreshing change from the “it’s all China’s fault” narratives.

And in his conclusion, he’s surely right on the money:

“Disputes are also best settled, or can only be settled, through negotiations or arbitration. Souring the atmosphere by making diplomacy difficult only makes things worse for everyone. With China, it has been said that upping the ante only strengthens the hand of hardliners in Beijing. Most ASEAN countries are wise enough to steer clear of that approach, however much of a rush it may give some politicians playing to the gallery at home.”


UPDATE 24 July: Simon Tay always strikes a good balance on this issue. He suggests agreeing on “a form of words about the South China Sea” – something akin to the form of words over the “one-China” principle, which “has helped frame a range of differences that is understood (but not conceded) by each party”. Such a move would reduce the likelihood that communiqués would be held hostage by a single issue, as has so painfully been the case recently. But he also warns that “each ASEAN member must be willing to keep the group's interest as a whole in view, and not focus solely on its bilateral ties with China or America. Otherwise ASEAN will not only fail to be neutral, but be ineffective and indeed neutered.”