"Southeast Asia's Place in Asia"

The East-West Center and the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies organized a workshop last month on “Southeast Asia’s Place in Asia: Perceptions, Realities, and Aspirations”. The report has just come out.

Some interesting points on the surrounding powers:

“The ‘return’ of the United States to Southeast Asia in the past two years was generally applauded, but discussion focused not on Washington’s current intentions but on American consistency... Other participants asked if the American concept of a broader ‘Indo-Pacific’ region really boils down to ‘America on top, with India drawn in?’...

“As for India, Southeast Asian participants commented that New Delhi has undertaken few recent initiatives in the ASEAN region. Except for episodic gestures that annoy China, its interest in Southeast Asia appears to have waned...

“Japan’s influence in Southeast Asia continues to fade...

“While competition between China and the U.S. was the dominant theme, caution was also expressed about overstating the role of outside powers. Southeast Asian states often ‘punch above their weight’ as ASEAN shapes the rules of the game in Southeast Asia, and individual Southeast Asian states are not compelled to side completely with either the U.S. or China...

“Southeast Asians do not believe their expanding trade with China undermines or threatens their independence or security. While fundamental economic (China-centered production networks) and diplomatic-security (hedging against China) trends are not aligned, Southeast Asia can both prosper and balance, with American assistance, China’s growing military capabilities and diplomatic influence. For example, there is no evidence that Sino-Vietnamese or Sino-Filipino commercial ties have been affected by rising tensions in the South China Sea. This finding contradicts the currently fashionable assumption in Australia and the U.S. that Asian states will be compelled to choose between their trade with China and their security relationships with the United States...

“Examples are few and far between where the Chinese government has sought to use economic leverage to alter Southeast Asian states’ policies...”

And on the role of ASEAN:

“ASEAN’s utility is underappreciated...

“One discussion revolved around who is using regionalism for what purpose. ASEAN uses it to advance Southeast Asian states’ ‘strategic autonomy.’ At the same time, ASEAN’s flexibility is useful for individual countries. Is, in fact, strengthening the institution in the interests of individual states? There was consensus among the Southeast Asian participants that it was not, as weak institutionalism gives member states greater room for maneuver.

“Another focus was on ASEAN’s relations with the U.S. and China. Official US policy has declared that ASEAN is a ‘fulcrum’ for regional institution building. While China appears more comfortable with ‘open regionalism’ and less determined to try to exclude the United States, some participants wondered if the U.S. is increasingly successful in ‘using’ ASEAN-led regionalism against China?”