Clinton in Myanmar

There’s lots of commentary, of course, about this visit, ranging from the metaphysical through the anecdotal to the frankly sartorial.

In the background is the China theme. While The New York Times (29 Nov) notes: “The Chinese are warily watching as the United States makes overtures toward Myanmar’s leaders,” Elizabeth Economy (1 Dec) insists: “Recent developments in U.S.-Myanmar relations are largely independent of the U.S.-China relationship and reflect instead a desire on the part of Myanmar’s leaders to begin reforming the country’s political and economic system and, within that process, to re-engage with the United States.”

But what the US should do next is an even bigger preoccupation. Joshua Kurlantzick (2 Dec) proposes “conditional normalization, in which Washington would significantly boost its relationship with Myanmar provided the reforms in that country continue apace”.

Two RSIS scholars (2 Dec) contend that “changes in Myanmar require the US to be more responsive”. Movements toward reform up to now are “not insignificant, and should be rewarded by the US, not simply with cautious approval and diplomatic visits, but with tangible actions that send the message that reforms bring attractive benefits.” There are two obstacles to speedy changes in US policy, they argue: the US government’s “heavy policy reliance” upon Aung San Suu Kyi, and “the oversimplification of Myanmar's internal political landscape by US commentators and policymakers”. They continue: “These obstacles have contributed to ineffective US policies toward Myanmar that reflect ostensible political morality over pragmatism. This has only worsened the impasse in bilateral relations. Ongoing developments in Myanmar necessitate that the US reengage the country as a matter of priority.”

A Jakarta Post commentator (2 Dec) urges the US not to “play out its own agenda in Myanmar simply to satisfy members of Congress”, and to employ “fairness”: “Fair treatment, as against ‘double standards’, is social capital for the US to utilize in its role in the region. A superior approach, as expressed through ‘acting like a colonial master’ to dictate its will on others will be no longer be helpful and sounds obsolete.”

But in a pre-visit post, Ernie Bower (22 Nov) warns that the US response to change in Burma “is likely to be measured, incremental and similar to normalizing relations with Vietnam. Don’t look for U.S. sanctions to be unwound anytime soon. In fact, even if the Obama administration wanted to, it couldn’t move too quickly to unwind and revoke the multiple layers of legal sanctions preventing U.S. companies and the U.S. government from engaging Myanmar.”

 

As with most things related to Myanmar, the next moves are going to be difficult to finesse.