Darwin and TPP continue to make waves

It was saddening to read of a rumoured rift between the Indonesian president and his foreign minister, Marty Natalegawa. While some have rejected this speculation, others have wondered whether SBY might be looking to replace Marty. Political observer Ikrar Nusa Bhakti points out that it would not be a good time for such a move: “If he insists on [the replacement] now, it would trigger a big question for the public, especially after Obama’s reported statement of dislike … It would make it sound as if [Yudhoyono] is a US crony; as if he receives political orders from the US.” (The “reported statement” is mentioned here.)

Given that 2011 has already turned out to be something of an “annus horribilis” for Yudhoyono, getting rid of the highly articulate and intelligent Marty, in circumstances that might suggest “leaning toward the US”, would hardly seem advisable.

Bantarto Bandoro of the Indonesia Defense University (link above) argues that, “given recent events, Indonesia needed to reaffirm its free and active foreign policy”. SBY’s “gestures” regarding the Darwin plan, however, no longer reflected this stance: “It is in fact a pretty significant deviation.” University of Indonesia international law expert Hikmahanto Juwana “also reiterated Indonesia’s need to stay true to its free and active stance, given that most of the public still rejected the idea of a pro-US foreign policy”.

An “official close to the issue” has suggested that this is a “good cop bad cop” game,  aimed at both the US and China, “with Marty expressing a tough stance on the US while Yudhoyono presented a calming influence”. Maybe…

Meanwhile, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), another US-endorsed bone of contention, continues to generate reaction.

Philippine trade official Ramon T. Kabigting is quoted by BusinessWorld as saying that ASEAN “will begin discussions next year on harmonizing existing free trade agreements in a bid to open an alternative” to the TPP. The move reflects “concern over the complexities of implementing separate free tree agreements” and “worry given strict standards in terms of intellectual property rights, labor, and the environment”.

Kabigting explains: “How do we consolidate those ASEAN plus one FTAs for simplification and consistency? … To some degree, it will be like the TPP, but it is not meant to outdo the other trading bloc. It’s just that members of the two groups (ASEAN with its partners and the TPP group) are asking themselves what measures do they deem appropriate to become part of such a deal … Maybe for the TPP, the attraction will be that the [United States] is part of it, but we are formulating our own offerings which are sets of trade facilitation and liberalization measures with anybody who wants to trade with the ASEAN.”

On the TPP in Indonesia generally, “one thing is becoming apparent: the absence of the two major emerging economies in Asia — China and Indonesia”. On the details, though, opinion is mixed. Some see promising opportunities for textiles and electronics. Others question Indonesia’s preparedness for such an arrangement, expressing doubts about infrastructure, logistics, legal frameworks, and service sector capacity.

These are stories that will no doubt continue to run in 2012. Let's hope the denouements reflect the inclusivity and balance that have always stood SEA in good stead in the past.

“Great Irresponsibles”?

I increasingly wonder whether the US and China – just like the US and USSR characterized by Hedley Bull in his 1980 article ‘The Great Irresponsibles?’ – are just not “well suited to fulfil the normative requirements of great powerhood”.

Like Bull’s superpowers of the Cold War, neither has a “continuous tradition of involvement as a great power manager in co-operation with other great powers”. Neither seems capable of realizing that “the overweening power of a state … provides other states and peoples with grounds for legitimate concern”. Rather, in each there is “an instinctive belief that the menace to others of superior power is cancelled out by virtuous purposes” – whether those purposes are a peaceful rise or the advancement of freedom. Both are “societies … that are self-absorbed and inattentive to values and perspectives other than their own, in a way that only very large societies can be”.

There is never any lack of reportage on China’s diplomatic missteps, and a thicket of commentary has noted how a carefully calibrated “charm offensive” seemed to give way over the last few years to a worrying tendency to come across as a bully. China definitely needs to do better.

But what about the US? Is it all good news for SEA that it’s “back”? Hardly.

It is not that SEA is opposed to US engagement. Far from it. Its economic and strategic security has long depended on ensuring that all its surrounding powers have a stake in its wellbeing. In broad terms, therefore, the region is happy that the US has signed ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, showed up at regional meetings, and generally signalled a massive upgrade in attention.

But responsible engagement involves more than this.

One element of responsibility involves not coming across as too obviously self-interested.

As Fenna Egberink has pointed out (8 Sep): “Increased engagement is much welcomed, but not if it feels like an anti-China rather than a pro-ASEAN policy.”

Singaporean Foreign Minister K. Shanmugam sums this up in an interview with Amitav Acharya (21 Oct), noting that he “believes that the ‘US has to demonstrate the importance it attaches to Southeast Asia’. The US needs to engage the region in a ‘responsible’ way and pursue ‘a coherent and clear policy towards Southeast Asia, otherwise countries here will make their own calculations’.”

Of course, no state has purely altruistic motives for any of its diplomatic moves. Understandably, the US wants to get some benefit from its investment of time, energy, and political capital. But being a responsible power means knowing how to make your great-power status palatable – knowing how to demonstrate that political initiatives are not “all about me”.

A second element of responsibility involves not creating or exacerbating harmful divisions – in other words, not making things worse. US administrations come and go, but the idea that “whoever is not with us is against us” never quite disappears.

Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa, also interviewed by Acharya, insists that “the answer to regional tensions lies not in inviting the US to balance China militarily, but in expanding and deepening ASEAN's engagement with both the US and China”. Asians, famously, “do not want to have to favor one country over another”.

Yet participants at a recent workshop “wondered if the US is increasingly successful in ‘using’ ASEAN-led regionalism against China”.

Indonesian newspapers likewise pick up on undercurrents that resent what is perceived as an unwarranted tilt towards the US, or that question an increased US presence on the edges of the region.

And in a recent opinion piece (6 Dec), Ruhanas Harun, from the National Defence University of Malaysia, detects “some concern about the US intention to deepen their military presence in the region.  If it is done too fast, too deep and somewhat arrogantly, many countries are worried that it might antagonise China… Are ASEAN countries actively looking to refurbish their relationships with the US as a way of balancing against Chinese power, as suggested by some? Not really. ASEAN countries maintain that they have no quarrel with China and are not willing to fight someone else’s battle against China… For ASEAN, the dilemma is managing the delicate balance between the necessity to reassure its security and the desire to have its sovereignty and integrity respected. While there are differences among ASEAN members with regards to outside powers’ intentions in the region, they all agree that arrogance is unacceptable, wherever it might originate.”

Two current issues are particulaly ripe with divisive possibilities, and offer a clear test of responsibility for both powers. One is the South China Sea. Both powers seem incapable of realizing that their actions look threatening to the other, and are threatening to the unity of the region. China’s famous dotted line is an obvious provocation, but the US, too, seems often oblivious to the effect of its actions, which can easily come across as contributing to “encirclement” or pursuing a “zero-sum approach”.

And then there's the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

It appears this “potentially threatening arrangement” has jolted China into redoubling efforts to reach a regional trade agreement in East Asia “even if it means moving towards Japan’s position on issues of coverage and membership” (maybe).

But as Shiro Armstrong very forcefully argues (11 Dec), this possibly useful galvanizing effect may come with a heavy price tag: “China needs to help set the rules and agree to them so that it has buy-in – not have those rules created around it. The latter scenario may have been possible a decade ago, but not now. It is crucial, then, that a major trade policy initiative in the Asia Pacific, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, include China, else it will become one of the set of rules created around China, constraining not promoting one of the main trans-Pacific economic relationships…The biggest risk of the TPP is political: that it might divide the region strategically between its members and the rest, with China being on the outside.”

Peter Drysdale (12 Dec) agrees: “The TPP is supposed to weld the Asia Pacific region together. It is supposed to deal with ‘behind-the-border’ regulatory (21st century) issues on which other preferential trade agreements fall short. Without careful consideration, design and a manageable framework, it will likely do the reverse — exclude key partners who are at the heart of East Asian economic dynamism by making it near-impossible for the excluded to join… It is disingenuous to declare, as [Congressman and Chairman of the Subcommittee of Trade of the House Committee on Ways and Means Kevin] Brady did in announcing the congressional hearings last week, that ‘we should also welcome new countries to the TPP if they are willing to meet TPP’s high ambitions and resolve outstanding bilateral issues’. There is absolutely no indication that the intention is to draw China into the TPP process any time soon.”

The report from an ASEAN Studies Centre seminar (12 Dec) concludes: “The TPP is another part of the ongoing Sino-US rivalry. The absence of China’s participation is evident. While the US states that it aims to prevent a division in the Asia-Pacific, it may actually be carefully engineering this division… The TPP is a very ambitious initiative towards deeper economic integration in Asia-Pacific. But it should be managed with ‘great sophistication’ so that it does not become another confrontational ground for the US and China.”

Having a large power in your vicinity is like having a hippo in your bathtub. It leaves you little space for manoeuvre. SEA is in the invidious position of having two major hippos and several minor ones in its bathing place. Individually and collectively, its states have the responsibility to do their utmost not to rock the tub. But at the end of the day, it’s the hippos who have to play responsibly, and learn to share. Otherwise, we’ll be in for a very messy, bruising outcome. 

Clinton in Myanmar

There’s lots of commentary, of course, about this visit, ranging from the metaphysical through the anecdotal to the frankly sartorial.

In the background is the China theme. While The New York Times (29 Nov) notes: “The Chinese are warily watching as the United States makes overtures toward Myanmar’s leaders,” Elizabeth Economy (1 Dec) insists: “Recent developments in U.S.-Myanmar relations are largely independent of the U.S.-China relationship and reflect instead a desire on the part of Myanmar’s leaders to begin reforming the country’s political and economic system and, within that process, to re-engage with the United States.”

But what the US should do next is an even bigger preoccupation. Joshua Kurlantzick (2 Dec) proposes “conditional normalization, in which Washington would significantly boost its relationship with Myanmar provided the reforms in that country continue apace”.

Two RSIS scholars (2 Dec) contend that “changes in Myanmar require the US to be more responsive”. Movements toward reform up to now are “not insignificant, and should be rewarded by the US, not simply with cautious approval and diplomatic visits, but with tangible actions that send the message that reforms bring attractive benefits.” There are two obstacles to speedy changes in US policy, they argue: the US government’s “heavy policy reliance” upon Aung San Suu Kyi, and “the oversimplification of Myanmar's internal political landscape by US commentators and policymakers”. They continue: “These obstacles have contributed to ineffective US policies toward Myanmar that reflect ostensible political morality over pragmatism. This has only worsened the impasse in bilateral relations. Ongoing developments in Myanmar necessitate that the US reengage the country as a matter of priority.”

A Jakarta Post commentator (2 Dec) urges the US not to “play out its own agenda in Myanmar simply to satisfy members of Congress”, and to employ “fairness”: “Fair treatment, as against ‘double standards’, is social capital for the US to utilize in its role in the region. A superior approach, as expressed through ‘acting like a colonial master’ to dictate its will on others will be no longer be helpful and sounds obsolete.”

But in a pre-visit post, Ernie Bower (22 Nov) warns that the US response to change in Burma “is likely to be measured, incremental and similar to normalizing relations with Vietnam. Don’t look for U.S. sanctions to be unwound anytime soon. In fact, even if the Obama administration wanted to, it couldn’t move too quickly to unwind and revoke the multiple layers of legal sanctions preventing U.S. companies and the U.S. government from engaging Myanmar.”

 

As with most things related to Myanmar, the next moves are going to be difficult to finesse.

Norms, power, and SEA

The Asia Society’s November report on US-East Asia relations offers many sound conclusions, not surprisingly, given its eminent panel of contributors.

One of its most useful pieces of advice is to avoid rushing to “tidy” the region’s overlapping institutions (because this might lead to exclusion and imbalance), and to tolerate instead a looser “Asia-Pacific network” arrangement (pp. 19, 35).

The following recommendation, however, does not quite seem to capture the complexity of the SEA dynamic:

“ASEAN’s role in building a more integrated regional society based on shared norms and values should be fully recognized and supported. Asia currently faces tensions between two competing trends: Asia as a community of norms and values, and Asia as a region shaped by power relations, given the presence of the United States and China... Deeper ASEAN engagement with the United States can reinforce ASEAN’s role in promoting values and building norms. This may be a more productive focus for U.S.–ASEAN relations, rather than simply seeking to use U.S.–ASEAN ties as a means of balancing rising regional actors such as China” (p.36).

This somewhat dichotomous understanding of norms and power is even more starkly expressed in the executive summary: “ASEAN’s efforts to build a regional society based on norms and values rather than power relations should be supported by the United States” (p. 7).

There is a good point here, of course, which aims to encourage the US to see ASEAN as a producer of useful long-term norms, rather than just another element that can potentially be arrayed against China. It serves as a reminder that ASEAN has contributed to the normative environment of Southeast Asia in ways that have often been under-valued.

But it suggests that norms and power are on divergent tracks, which is misleading. One of ASEAN’s greatest strengths has been its capacity to maintain a balance with all the region’s major powers. This multi-dimensional, ever-oscillating balance has in itself a normative dimension. Behind it is the idea that a balanced region will create greater room for manoeuvre for individual states and the region as a whole – a situation that is regarded as better than other imaginable alternatives (such as out-and-out dominance by any particular power). And just as power-balancing has a normative dimension, so too does norm-creation have a power dimension. Power always plays a role in the development of norms.

This is particularly obvious in the case of SEA. The normative strand of the regional narrative has always, and will always, come with a distinct power component – and vice versa. These facets are two sides of a coin rather than “competing trends”.

The attempt to separate norms and power has often been at the root of skewed interpretations of Southeast Asian politics: realists have too exclusively privileged power; constructivists and liberals have too exclusively privileged norms. Many interpretations of Southeast Asis consequently come across as one-sided, since Southeast Asia epitomizes the interplay of both.

English School interpretations hit the spot more closely here, I would argue, since ideas of international society clearly recognize and value processes of normative change, but equally clearly foreground the dimension of power in the evolution of underlying institutions.

Attempts to somehow overcome power relations, as though they are embarrassing remnants of an old-fashioned past that we should have outgrown, are likely to leave Southeast Asia vulnerable. ASEAN needs to work with the grain of both dimensions – the normative and the power-conscious elements – if it is to ride out the waves of a US “pivot” that faces the Association with what Mark Valencia (30 Nov) sees as “perhaps its greatest challenge since its creation”.

The dangers of “wishing away” power are perhaps what Rizal Sukma (2 Dec) has in mind when he considers how Indonesia should react to the looming strategic rivalry between the US and China. In language reminiscent of Michael Leifer’s, he argues:

“For ASEAN’s normative multilateral framework to function well there is the need for a stable balance of power among the major powers. Hence, a ‘dynamic equilibrium’ within an ASEAN’s multilateral framework — such as the EAS — requires a stable conventional balance of power outside that framework.”

But this does not leave ASEAN or Southeast Asia as a powerless puppet of external forces. As another recent report on Southeast Asia suggests: “Southeast Asian states often ‘punch above their weight’ as ASEAN shapes the rules of the game in Southeast Asia, and individual Southeast Asian states are not compelled to side completely with either the U.S. or China.”

ASEAN and its individual states need to redouble their efforts to ensure they do their bit towards contributing to a stable Asia-wide balance of power, resisting all blandishments to favour one power over another.

Not having too many eggs in any one basket is still the best way to safeguard their normative Asia-wide room for manoeuvre. The two belong, inextricably, together.

"Southeast Asia's Place in Asia"

The East-West Center and the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies organized a workshop last month on “Southeast Asia’s Place in Asia: Perceptions, Realities, and Aspirations”. The report has just come out.

Some interesting points on the surrounding powers:

“The ‘return’ of the United States to Southeast Asia in the past two years was generally applauded, but discussion focused not on Washington’s current intentions but on American consistency... Other participants asked if the American concept of a broader ‘Indo-Pacific’ region really boils down to ‘America on top, with India drawn in?’...

“As for India, Southeast Asian participants commented that New Delhi has undertaken few recent initiatives in the ASEAN region. Except for episodic gestures that annoy China, its interest in Southeast Asia appears to have waned...

“Japan’s influence in Southeast Asia continues to fade...

“While competition between China and the U.S. was the dominant theme, caution was also expressed about overstating the role of outside powers. Southeast Asian states often ‘punch above their weight’ as ASEAN shapes the rules of the game in Southeast Asia, and individual Southeast Asian states are not compelled to side completely with either the U.S. or China...

“Southeast Asians do not believe their expanding trade with China undermines or threatens their independence or security. While fundamental economic (China-centered production networks) and diplomatic-security (hedging against China) trends are not aligned, Southeast Asia can both prosper and balance, with American assistance, China’s growing military capabilities and diplomatic influence. For example, there is no evidence that Sino-Vietnamese or Sino-Filipino commercial ties have been affected by rising tensions in the South China Sea. This finding contradicts the currently fashionable assumption in Australia and the U.S. that Asian states will be compelled to choose between their trade with China and their security relationships with the United States...

“Examples are few and far between where the Chinese government has sought to use economic leverage to alter Southeast Asian states’ policies...”

And on the role of ASEAN:

“ASEAN’s utility is underappreciated...

“One discussion revolved around who is using regionalism for what purpose. ASEAN uses it to advance Southeast Asian states’ ‘strategic autonomy.’ At the same time, ASEAN’s flexibility is useful for individual countries. Is, in fact, strengthening the institution in the interests of individual states? There was consensus among the Southeast Asian participants that it was not, as weak institutionalism gives member states greater room for maneuver.

“Another focus was on ASEAN’s relations with the U.S. and China. Official US policy has declared that ASEAN is a ‘fulcrum’ for regional institution building. While China appears more comfortable with ‘open regionalism’ and less determined to try to exclude the United States, some participants wondered if the U.S. is increasingly successful in ‘using’ ASEAN-led regionalism against China?”

Pick of the month -- 3 -- the Myanmar story

This is more akin to “pick of two months” now, but the story continues to be a fascinating one.

Approval of Myanmar’s bid to chair ASEAN in 2014, coupled with the announcement of Hillary Clinton’s visit, brought to the surface towards the end of November a number of pleas to slow down the rapidly accelerating process of engagement. 

Even before that, the note of caution was always present (13 Oct), and some commentators were keen to inject some element of measurability into the debate, suggesting “benchmarks” (25 Sep) or “conditions” (25 Oct) that Myanmar should be expected to meet.

But others argued for not asking too many questions too soon. A. Lin Neumann contends (23 Sep): “In short, Burma has to allow its people enough freedom that it will no longer be an embarrassment to its neighbors, while remaining repressive enough to keep the generals secure. It is not a perfect arrangement, but it is a start and probably the best anyone can hope for.” Sounds cynical – but it is good to be reminded that Myanmar is not going to turn into a model democracy overnight.

“As imperfect as they may be, the signs [of change] are unmistakable,” Kamrul Idris writes (23 Nov), quoting Amnesty International researcher Benjamin Zawacki as saying, “Those who deny this are simply not paying attention or are allowing their personal, political or institutional agendas to get in the way.” But at the end of the day, Idris continues, “the aim of bringing in Myanmar from the cold for the sake of its long-suffering population can benefit from not asking too many questions at the present time.” Elsewhere, too, current developments were seen as validating “a persuasive approach”, that focused on “incentives rather than punishments” (1 Nov).

A couple of particularly noteworthy observations came during November. Nicholas Farelly (15 Nov) comments: “If you watch the Burmese media closely then you already know that there have been some simply remarkable changes in the past year.  I can’t think of any time (since 1962, at least) when so much has happened to shift perceptions of the country. It is remarkable, and important, that the media is now free(er) to play a vital role in helping keep the public informed about the country’s political, economic and social changes.”

And in a powerful article, an Inside Story correspondent (1 Nov) observes that “the scepticism of many international pundits is strikingly absent in Rangoon. Here, a new air of openness is drawing many people into the political process ... which the military unveiled to such opprobrium in 2003.”

This correspondent sums up the surprise of many: “I felt betrayed, and naive for having hoped that an election process so obviously flawed could usher in any sort of significant, positive change. But that is precisely what has happened. And, most dramatically, many foes of the former regime – including Aung San Suu Kyi – are rolling the dice and throwing their support behind President Thein Sein and his government, seeing them as the best last chance to break Burma’s decades-old political deadlock.”

True, there are many potential motivations behind the decision to suspend construction of the Myitsone Dam, but, as the Inside Story writer notes, on the one hand, this move “sent a strong signal to both China and the West: Thein Sein wants Burma’s international relationships to be better balanced”. On the other, “what was most striking was the broad-based anti-dam movement that found its voice in the weeks leading up to the 30 September announcement. For the first time since the 1988 uprising, the many groups that make up Burma’s notoriously fractious opposition movement had come together on a single issue.”

Pragmatism involves trying to steer a course between euphoria and scepticism, seeking out not the highest moral ground, but rather what might best work for continued positive change in what is still a very fragile and constrained situation. 

It involves compromise – and the ability to live with history. As one activist from the “88 Generation” explains to the Inside Story correspondent quoted above: “I have suffered a great deal myself. But from these bitter experiences I realised that we cannot achieve what we want with hatred. We need a situation where everybody wins, including the military. They are our brothers as well.”

Another “activist-turned-educator” agrees “that in every negotiation process we have to try and understand the other side’s interests, and we must make their interests our interests... Whatever worries them, we have to find out what it is and eliminate it.”

These are good strategies for pragmatists everywhere…

Some of the recent commentary has focused on Aung San Suu Kyi, and the need for a “deft touch” in playing what is a rather new political game (27 Oct). Andrew Selth writes (23 Nov): “Burma's pro-democracy forces have endured terrible privations over the past 23 years to get to this position. Now that it is here, however, they may find that the real work has only just begun. The existence of an undisguised military dictatorship guilty of appalling human rights abuses offered them a simple choice. The decision whether or not to trust a hybrid civilian-military government that seems to promise incremental reform and national reconciliation is much more difficult.”

This, of course – albeit less starkly, and certainly less prominently – is the kind of choice SEA’s civil society activists face every day. 

The biggest fly in the ointment is still the ethnic issue. As a new International Crisis Group report (30 Nov) makes clear, recent conciliatory moves “mark one of the most significant moments in the six decades of conflict”, but still “lasting peace is still not assured”. If ever there was a situation where pragmatism needs to prevail, this is it.

Pick of the month -- 2 -- changing views on ASEAN

Slowly but surely, a new song is being sung about ASEAN these days. Maybe it’s Indonesia’s able leadership; maybe it’s the pressure of global economic headaches, which suddenly make different forms of regionalism look more attractive; maybe it’s the signs of hope in Myanmar; maybe it’s the perceived cold winds blowing down from China – whatever the reason, the tone seems to be changing. There is less emphasis on ASEAN’s (manifest) defects, and more emphasis on what it can offer.

I commented on The Economist’s two days ago. But Shekhar Shah (16 Oct) also argues, “ASEAN has had considerable experience in coordinating policy responses and domestic policy choices, both those that have been successful and those that have failed. Asian members should bring this experience to the G20. ASEAN’s durability and openness to change presents an opportunity for the Asian G20 members to bring this ASEAN spirit to the G20. This will equip the G20 to be effective over the generation that will be required to rebuild the global economic order.”

Maria Monica Wihardja (12 Nov) captures the prevailing tone, writing that ASEAN’s “stability as an institution for over 44 years and its visible maturing over this time is testimony that ASEAN serves as a regional power-broker and conciliator. Its maintenance of a ‘dynamic equilibrium’ in the region by avoiding the hegemony of any power also supports a successful and fluid regionalism, including the emergence of fora like the EAS… A sense of community, solidarity and unity — ASEAN’s greatest offering — must not be lost; it must be promoted beyond the organisation. Asia is one of a handful of regions that remain economically prosperous, peaceful and socially stable, and every effort must be made to maintain it this way.”

While forecasting no easy road ahead, Awidya Santikajaya (14 Nov) comments: “Before the American and European crises, ASEAN was discredited because of its ineffectiveness, lack of commitment to becoming a supranational body and lax rules. But, now ASEAN is praised as a comfort vehicle for regionalism.”

And Teuku Rezasyah (23 Nov), a researcher at the Indonesian Center of Democracy, Diplomacy and Defense, tells the Jakarta Post that ASEAN has shown itself to be “bonafide, credible and acceptable to the West” during Indonesia’s chairmanship. “ASEAN,” he is quoted as saying, “has successfully made the US think over whether they want to continue criticizing Myanmar and push it even closer to China [...] or invite Myanmar to learn together with ASEAN how to be a modern democratic country”.

Such a change in the dominant tone is long overdue. ASEAN, as I have posted before, has in the past received far more than its fair share of pillorying and pummelling.

But narratives are fickle. ASEAN is flavour of the month at the moment. But it could find itself back in the firing line for a number of reasons.  

One is strategic. As ASEAN defence ministers stressed in their recent meeting (25 Oct), they want to forge ahead with cooperation, and undertake “more concrete actions” in key areas like disaster relief, peace-keeping, and military industry cooperation. But mention of the South China Sea brings the following proviso from Indonesian Defence Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro, chairman of the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting: “We know what we don’t want in our Political-Security Community. We don’t want to be a military pact; we don’t want to do anything against any outsider; we don’t want to use force.” It is not difficult to imagine, however, the kinds of voices that might want to challenge this pragmatic and centrist stance.

Economically, too, there are two distinct “truths” that need careful balancing. On the one hand, ASEAN’s economic integration efforts have often been too readily dismissed. Yet while all the dismissing has been going on, progress has been happening on the ground. Luke Hunt (16 Nov) notes “a dawning in the Western conscious that ASEAN will economically integrate as a community by 2015, opening their economies to free trade in goods, services and investments, encompassing a population of about 500 million people”. It is interesting how often the business press already refers to “ASEAN” as a unit. Indeed, growing de facto regionalism in and beyond ASEAN is one of the reasons a recent report by the Asia Society concludes that the US “should renew and deepen engagement” with East Asia as a whole, and pushes for “a new US diplomacy with ASEAN”.

On the other hand, ASEAN's “growing integration”, while real, is still very much a work in progress – even “wishful thinking” for some. Non-tariff barriers and labour mobility remain substantial stumbling-blocks. For some domestic constituencies, economic integration within ASEAN, let alone across a wider area, where bigger and/or more developed players hold substantial influence, is hard to swallow. As a BBC report (24 Oct) notes, “ASEAN leaders are quick to point out that the benefits they get from a strong economic relationship with China are far more advantageous than isolating one of the world's strongest economies, and an increasingly important world power”, and ASEAN Secretary General Surin highlights the decreasing trend of the China-favourable trade balance. But there are plenty of vested interests who will want to defend their turf, and there are plenty of ideological opponents, too, who resent that ASEAN is “continuously used as a tool to implement the global capitalism agenda”.

And free trade is itself becoming another potential divider of the Asia-Pacific region, in a way that will also test ASEAN and its loyalties. Two trade initiatives are currently offering alternatives to APEC: the US-favoured Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the China-favoured ASEAN+* initiative. These may prove ultimately cooperative. But until that cooperation is realized, the differently envisioned trade concepts also have the capacity to carry strategic messages. This – along with multiple domestic considerations – may account for Indonesian President SBY’s “cold” response to the TPP.

So, ASEAN is enjoying something of a discursive high at the moment. But in attempting to chart the path that is best for SEA and its wider environment (as opposed to best for some other individual players), it could very easily find itself – unfortunately – back in the position of political punch-ball.

[*ADDED 29/11: China was initially associated with an ASEAN+3-based East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA), arguing that a (Japanese-associated) East Asia Summit-based Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia (CEPEA) might be a potential eventual follow-up. Shekhar suggests that China's “exclusion from the TPP offers a common point for them to actively pursue quicker implementation of CEPEA”.]

The Europe turn-around

Fascinating to read The Economist's take on the recent round of ASEAN summitry (18 Nov). This is not a paper that has always been sympathetic to ASEAN. So it's interesting to see this Banyan writer expounding on the reasons ASEAN was never able to plunge down the European path (even while it acknowledged Europe's achievements), and concluding that we should “expect ASEAN to stay loose, broad, and talkative. Endless summits don’t necessarily have to result in an ever-closer union, thank goodness.”

There are two things here. What a good job, firstly, that ASEAN has always politely resisted the heavy pressure from many academics and other observers to “become like Europe faster”. ASEAN is a lumbering old thing, and exceedingly frustrating at times, but Europe's traumas certainly illustrate that conservatism in region-building is not always a bad thing.

And this piece also illustrates the speed with which things are changing in SEA this year. In light of the European fire-storm, my piece a couple of months ago, inspired in part by work earlier in the year with Indonesian students, seems almost quaint.

But the wheel will no doubt turn. Europe (we all sincerely hope) will find a way out of its problems. Maybe this way will involve the deeper integration of a limited number of core states. Maybe the calls for ASEAN to learn from its European cousin will one day fire up again. Then it will be time to learn all over again that regionalisms are not all the same.

Pick of the month -- 1

One of the perils of an only spasmodically connected road trip is the pile of info that has to be sorted when you return. But there are bonuses. A month’s hindsight makes some stories stand out very clearly. Here are some key contenders:

• Rizal Sukma (18 Oct) gives an excellent run-down on the impact of three domestic factors on Indonesia’s quest for a greater role on the world stage.
• Amitav Acharya (18 Oct) cogently outlines another of ASEAN’s many dilemmas – how can it succeed in “courting Washington without hurting Beijing”? Although ASEAN has to date proved adept at pulling off a sophisticated balancing act among the major powers, the US’s renewed vocal focus on the Asia-Pacific will make the Association’s task harder, not easier. As Acharya argues: “America should listen carefully. There may be a possible disconnect between how some in the United States see its role, and the views of key ASEAN members about how the United States should behave in the region… In resisting Beijing’s assertiveness, ASEAN has to think very carefully about how far it might want to go to seek America’s involvement, especially when it comes to security in the South China Sea. Courting Washington without hurting Beijing will be a daunting challenge.”
• The Interpreter has recently published a number of pieces urging Australians to embrace their immediate neighbourhood more enthusiastically. Attending a writing course in Melbourne recently, I was totally underwhelmed (and baffled) by the lack of interest in SEA as a region, so I think these pieces are tackling a very genuine problem:
• Mark Carroll, director of the Australian-Thai Chamber of Commerce, kicks off by noting (25 Oct): “Damning for Australian business is that it has largely failed to recognise the importance of the Thai economy. Most Australians still see Thailand through the prism of beaches, bars and pretty girls. The US, China, Japan and Korea — among others — have moved past this perception of Thailand. It is a serious business destination for them. Australian businesses should follow their lead.”
• But Michael Wesley (2 Nov) also wonders whether “our schools teach our kids anything about Southeast Asia”, and Tim Lindsey (4 Nov) comments: “It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Australians want returns from Asia without putting effort into it… We, alone of all Western countries [well, there is New Zealand…], are located in one of the most exciting and stimulating parts of the world, with fabulously rich artistic traditions and cutting-edge modern cultures. Asia is funky! It is a place to love and be stimulated by, not to loathe and fear. It is deeply sad that we are missing out on this, and strangling ourselves with parochialism.” Amen to that.
• Meanwhile, Bangkok Pundit (31 Oct) examines the politics behind Thailand’s floods, and Steven Rood (2 Nov) charts events in the southern Philippines over recent months, and warns of the dangers of failing to make demonstrable progress in peace talks.
• And because I’m always working myself up about stereotypes of Singapore, it was nice to see this by Sharon Chen (24 Oct).

Ind(ones)ia

I’m just back from my second India trip, more enthused about the country and its potential than ever, and determined to follow its relations with SEA more closely.

I didn’t have time to be glued to the press, which – as in all large countries – exhibits a strong domestic focus, but notable international stories voiced:

• More of the predictable speculation on India-China-US power equations;
• Frustration at the imposition by a range of countries of travel warnings during the Divali period;
• Suspicion of Commonwealth attempts to call the shots on human rights;
• Pride at the successful running of the first Formula 1 (preceded in the papers and on the streets by a substantial amount of advertising, together with lengthy explanations of the finer points of motor racing);
• Disappointment over India’s poor showing on tourist arrivals, compared with, say, Thailand’s.

One of the things that struck me most about India this time round, however, was the parallel that exists with Indonesia. Both are proudly democratic, with strong underlying support for pluralism and human rights. Both see their size as an indication of their entitlement to carry more clout in the region and the world.

But both are still working through issues of infrastructure, poverty, corruption, and law enforcement that sometimes undermine their credentials not only in the eyes of foreign observers but also in the eyes of their own citizens. Both have large majorities following a particular religion, and the virtues of pluralism and tolerance are regularly challenged. In neither are insurgencies a thing of the past. Both have ethnically similar smaller neighbours, with whom relations (albeit for very different reasons) are strained and emotional.

And both are strongly nationalistic. This trait makes them awkward partners at times, as justifiable pride easily translates into tetchiness. But it also constitutes a kind of vaccine against unequivocally aligning with, and/or being pushed around by, any one particular ideological camp.

Democratic but different, both demonstrate a complexity that militates against dangerous dualities. This is a sign of hope in a time of worrying polarization.

SEAview from India

There won't be much posting over the next few weeks, as I'll be off the beaten track in India.

Good place for a SEAview, mind you. There's plenty in the newspapers these days about Looking East... India and Myanmar... India and Viet Nam...

And always in the context of relations with China.

But Tridivesh Singh Maini warns, “One of the biggest mistakes Delhi could make would be to see the Indo-Vietnam relationship as simply a means for countering China.”

All the more so as the uptick comes in tandem with the warming relations with Myanmar.

According to Rajeev Sharma, “China will likely view these close ties with concern, and strategists in Beijing are likely to see India’s moves as part of a zero-sum game in the region. The view from Delhi, though, is that China is being repaid for its so-called ‘string of pearls’ strategy of encircling India. Certainly the latest meeting comes at an awkward time for China, with Burma having riled Beijing by suspending a $3.6 billion China-driven dam project.”

ASEAN round-up

• Fuadi Pitsuwan wonders: “Does the ‘Asian Century’ include small and middle income countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations?" Surely yes, although it doesn't always appear that way in the Northeast Asia-obsessed commentary. But then the next question is: “What does ASEAN have to do to keep riding with the rising tigers of Asia?” It’s appropriate to ask, and two of the article’s recommendations seem very sound: form a single market, and create an ASEAN identity. They are already things ASEAN is committed to doing. But establish an ASEAN Defence Force? With a “NATO-style collective force that is robust in capabilities and sufficiently large for self-protection and deterrence”? I’m far from sure this would be a useful step in the current climate.
• Global economic turmoil could be a powerful attention-focuser for the realization of the ASEAN Economic Community’s goals. But as Fuadi (above) warns, “The unwillingness of the bureaucratic system to follow the regional vision for fear of change has led to the slow implementation of AEC-oriented policies.” It is not only the bureaucrats who resist change. There is also, as the Malaysian trade minister discreetly puts it, “pressure from stakeholders towards adopting policies which may be deemed protectionist in nature”. Bureaucrats and powerful domestic lobbies -- a hard duo to face down.

Depressing...

We’re in dynamic times, and in many ways the story of shifting power and influence is invigorating and inspiring.

But some things remain depressingly the same, shockingly common to developed and developing, old powers and new. Nationalism is one, inequality another.

The meeting of the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Council closed on Monday 8 October. Malaysian Information, Communications, and Culture Minister Rais noted that regional “history and culture has so much in common that sometimes we are confused as to where certain aspects of our culture originate from, so much so it may even result in friendly tiffs among us”.

But those “tiffs” often don’t look so friendly. Especially the ones between Malaysia and Indonesia. Cultural quarrels are just one area of contention. Migrants and domestic workers are another. Boundaries a third.

The heat is turned up so, so easily. Earlier this week, the Indonesian government had to deny reports of Malaysian encroachment in West Kalimantan, after members of a Indonesian House of Representative commission “accused Malaysia of seizing parts of Indonesia’s territory”.

A storm in a teacup. But it still produces the messages on Facebook – from young, intelligent people – accusing Malaysia of stealing Indonesian land, spewing threats and bluster.  

It's going to be hard to produce a community with this stuff still lurking.

Inequality is the other old, old problem that seems disturbingly familiar across the economic and geographic board. As Asian Trends Monitoring puts it, alongside the economic miracles in SEA,  “the problems of endemic poverty, increasing divides between rural and urban communities, and absolute growth in economic inequalities, represent the dark shadow of Asia’s success that is too easily overlooked”.

Their crystal clear charts illustrate the gaps in SEA (between countries and within countries) in terms of access to basic infrastructure, communications technology and financial services, and health provision.

A problem of the region’s stage of development? Well, you’d like to think so. Except that gross inequality is not something that developed countries have remotely managed to deal with either.

Where are the models for taming destructive nationalism and corrosive inequity? Are they replicable? Because wherever we are on the power cycle, we desperately need to find some. Otherwise, power shifts will just bring more of the miserable same.

Global power shifts need changed ideas

Views on how to navigate/manage/exploit/avoid obliteration by (delete as appropriate) the world’s changing power configuration come thick and fast these days.

Here are some recent SEA-relevant pieces.

Anthony Milner argues that if Australia is “not to be a ‘lonely country’ – and this would be an uncomfortable fate – Australians will also need to be prudent in handling our neighbours. Abusing Malaysia, for instance, does not help to promote the type of regional cooperation we need to handle refugee flows.”

This is an obvious but very good point.

I don’t think abusing ASEAN helps much either, but it's still a kind of reflex action in many circles.

In similar vein, Shiro Armstrong reminds us that “Indonesia is now a larger economy than Australia’s in purchasing power parity terms”, and its power and influence are likely to grow. Presumably, this is another neighbour that would repay more prudent handling. It's not just what the government says that is important. I have had many conversations with Indonesians who feel their country does not get a fair deal from the Australian media. And public attitudes towards Indonesia “remain mired in distrust and suspicion”, according to this year's Lowy Institute poll. 

Meanwhile, Javad Heydarian regrets a tendency on the part of the US as well “to relegate ASEAN to a secondary position within its broader Asian policy”. Some of this is due to ASEAN’s own (so easy to blame, so hard to fix) “institutional handicaps”. But there is also the fear that “ASEAN has transformed into something of a strategic battleground for Beijing and Washington”.

It sounds like a change in mindset on SEA would be useful across the board.

ASEAN round-up

• Kevin Rudd must be delighted with this interview with Indonesia's foreign minister. It offers a bit of a counterweight to this earlier reaction, and recalls the recent AUSMIN communiqué’s welcome for “Australia’s leadership role in building a more robust community in the Asia-Pacific region through the EAS”. Singapore’s was actually an ASEAN-plus-eight proposal, and it wasn’t alone, although the Philippines has presumably since changed its tune… If the US plays a smart role in the EAS, then Australia and Indonesia will be vindicated. If it starts throwing its weight around too ostentatiously, or if future administrations lose interest, then the merits of ASEAN-plus-eight will be apparent in retrospect. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
• The liberalization of trade in services is still a hard nut to crack for the ASEAN Economic Community. In the meantime, comparatively small gestures, like an “ASEAN lane” at immigration would be both symbolic and practical.
• And amid all the difficulties of realizing economic integration, it’s good to be reminded of some fundamentals: “The ASEAN region is a fairly large economic bloc today in terms of GDP and is expected to be among the top five in the world over the next 15-20 years… A young growing population with strong income levels and low consumer debt-to-GDP are the growth drivers… The ASEAN has been one of the top performing regions from a stock market returns perspective.” Sometimes we get so obsessed with the difficulties of ASEAN the organization that we lose sight of SEA the region.

"One clear voice"?

Indonesia’s foreign minister has prioritized the need for ASEAN to speak with “one clear voice” on international issues…

Aside from the difficulties of this (the EU hasn’t managed it yet), is it wholly desirable?

Surely the usefulness of one clear voice depends on what that voice articulates.

ASEAN’s most telling defence of its driving-seat position in regional architecture is that the organization is non-threatening. A key factor in this profile is SEA’s capacity, corporately and individually, to practise the kind of balancing that engages all the major powers, and exclusively favours none of them. This strategy has made an important contribution to regional peace and confidence-building to date. Even now, with a recalibration of the balance under way in certain countries over the South China Sea, no state wants all its eggs in one basket.

If the evolution of “one clear voice” were to also equate with an unequivocal leaning towards or away from any one particular power or perceived array of powers, this would not bode well.

And part of the reason ASEAN looks unthreatening lies in its very variety. Its components have politico-security feet in many different camps, and may at any given time be leaning in slightly different directions, at slightly different angles. If one country adjusts its balance slightly, therefore, this does not imply the tilt of the whole region in the same direction. Such a move can be compensated for on a regional level by the dozens of other micro-balancing manoeuvres that are constantly taking place. The ASEAN states are not a solid mass of colour, as it were – they are more akin to a variegated, “twinkling” pattern.

And that’s a good thing, not a bad thing. Such an entity is far more likely to forestall a dangerous regional binary.

ASEAN round-up

• China was not impressed with that meeting in the Philippines… In an article headlined, “ASEAN’s united front against China does not exist” (26 Sep), the People’s Daily argues: “The Philippines has lost its cool over the territorial disputes. It clamors for a united ASEAN front to blunt China, which appears to be diplomatic illusion… There is no collective will to unite and confront China… The Philippines does not have the willpower to sacrifice its relationship with China and become involved in an armed standoff. Seeking ASEAN help to isolate China is pure nationalist fantasy.”
• Sam Bateman, meanwhile (29 Sep), notes that discussions over the South China Sea are confused by two crucial points: “The first is the mistaken notion that sovereignty over the islands and reefs of the sea can be resolved on a multilateral basis. This is incorrect because sovereignty is fundamentally a bilateral issue for resolution between the states that claim a particular feature. The second confused idea is that maritime boundaries, or some other segregation of the disputed areas, will be determined by the law. This is also incorrect. The settlement of boundary disputes, like that of sovereignty, is fundamentally a political issue for negotiation between the respective parties.” That being the case, he argues, the disputes will be solved only “when the bordering countries change their mindsets from one of sovereignty, sole ownership of resources and seeking ‘fences in the sea’ to one of functional cooperation and cooperative management”. Sound advice. 
• ASEAN finance ministers have agreed to create an ASEAN infrastructure fund (25 Sep). Edmund Sim observes that this development was not accompanied by parallel investment in institutional infrastructure, but nevertheless illustrates “ASEAN’s resourcefulness in dealing with legal and institutional vacuums”. Meanwhile, an opinion piece in the Inquirer (27 Sep) urges ASEAN to “work on narrowing the gaps that persist among and within its members”. Good advice, too – but, of course, “ASEAN” can't do this alone. Individual governments promoting smart policy need to be the prime movers in this direction...
• Here’s another of the now frequent calls for ASEAN “to build a sense of community among its people”, this time by Surakiart Sathiratha, a former Thai foreign minister and deputy prime minister (27 Sep). Suggestions that ASEAN make a joint bid for the 2030 World Cup represent one of the many ways to attempt this, and the Asian Football Confederation has lent its support to this effort (28 Sep). Tourism is another way to get the region’s people talking more amongst themselves. So reports that 47% of the around 73 million tourists visiting ASEAN countries in 2010 (around 34 million) were from other ASEAN countries are a good sign (28 Sep). The tourism figure as a whole represents an 11% increase from 65 million in 2009. It’s perhaps a bit of a stretch to conclude: “This huge intra-ASEAN travel indicates that the region is on the right track to establish an ASEAN Community in the years to come.” But it’s an encouragement for ongoing ASEAN efforts to promote the whole region as a tourist destination.
• It's good to have news of a developing dialogue between civil society organizations and the ASEAN Commission on the Promotion and Protection of the Rights of Women and Children (ACWC).