Thursday, 25 October 2012

Following Myanmar

'Myanmar is becoming a "normal" country in ways that were unthinkable two years ago,' writes Trevor Wilson, in an upbeat assessment. Some changes are now 'incontrovertible', and we are witnessing 'unprecedented openness and inclusiveness about government processes' and 'the return of vigorous parliamentary government'.

International Crisis Group's CrisisWatch database continues to provide a useful log of events in Myanmar, including the ups and downs of ethnic issues.


'Democracy!' shouted an old guy pedalling past on a bicycle, as I took this picture in upstate Myanmar.

T-shirts like these are freely on sale in downtown Yangon these days.

Tuesday, 23 October 2012

Southern Thailand, Singapore, and inequality

Three interesting pieces this morning:

First, Joshua Kurlantzick reviews the ongoing violence that 'has made southern Thailand the deadliest war zone in East Asia', while remaining 'almost invisible on the global stage'.

Despite some new government initiatives, the violence has recently spiked. Explanations for this vary, the most depressing being that young men in the south, now innured to violence and facing the consequences of national economic slow-down, 'have become wedded to the insurgency as a way of life':

'As each generation of young men in the south has been drawn into the insurgency, and as some teachers, local clerics, and other powerful southerners treat the insurgents with great respect, generation after generation of southerners see the battle as the best option not just for their politics, but for their own social well-being. And that is a hard cycle to break.'

I hope he is not right, and there is still a chance for the politics of opportunity to count for something in southern Thailand.

Second, a fascinating opinion piece by Adrian W. J. Kuah focuses on the contrast currently emerging in Singapore between 'the imperative of the national narrative and the ethos of a networked city':

'Whereas the national narrative emphasises the continuity and coherence of place, the clearly-bounded territory that is the locus of collective identity and values, the ethos of a global, networked city privileges and celebrates the transient flows of people and capital, with the city being an open arena of ambition and competition.'

These competing impulses are proving difficult to reconcile -- which is one of the reasons for the current 'unhappiness with the state of immigration policies', as Kuah delicately puts it.

Amid these competing ideas of spaces and flows, there's a renewed need, it seems to me, for Doreen Massey's concept of place, which articulates 'a global sense of the local, a global sense of place' (1994, Space, Place and Gender. Cambridge: Polity Press, pp 154-6).

Thirdly, Scott Winship reminds us that inequality is a complex topic to handle. A lot of what we intuitively suspect about it is hard to ground in evidence, and its effects vary depending on development levels. Focusing on the United States, Winship writes:

'There are plenty of reasons to worry about inequality of opportunity — socioeconomic gaps in college-going are on the rise, and test-score gaps between rich and poor kids have similarly increased, to name just two examples. But the evidence that these problems would diminish if we could limit the top 1 percent’s incomes to those seen in other countries is nonexistent... Studies on whether inequality hurts economic growth typically focus on developing countries...

'Similarly, the influential research of economists Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson argues that inequality leads to less democracy and reinforces itself through politics, but it too is based on developing countries. There has been hardly any research that rigorously tests whether economic inequality in the United States is associated with worse political or policy outcomes for the nonrich.'

Like many others, I'm concerned about inequality in Southeast Asia, and convinced that smarter policy is a big part of the answer. But designing and implementing smarter policy that will create synergies at both national and regional levels is no small challenge.  

Friday, 19 October 2012

Calm words on oil and troubled waters

Worth a look is this balanced take by the Carnegie Endowment's Douglas H. Paal (16 Oct) on the disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.

He reminds us:

"The common media narrative is that China is being more aggressive. But if you trace back the origins of the latest flare-ups—in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and there’s even a China-South Korea rock that they’re arguing about—they actually all started outside of China. What we’re seeing from China are exaggerated reactions, and people notice that more than what was done by the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, or South Korea..."

His advice:

"This is a time when we need to get past elections, past transitions, and allow some cool diplomacy to go to work...

"My own view is that a lot of the fuel from the flames of these tensions in the East China Sea and the South China Sea would be taken out if we could divert the competition for energy and the competition for marine resources into separate dialogues...

"But what would be really difficult is to try to settle the sovereign claims. With China rising, Japan in a difficult period, and Southeast Asia going through all sorts of change, countries are not going to willingly give up their claims on sovereignty. They might settle in the end to leave things as they are. With changing ratios of power among the various parties out there, they’re not likely to settle claims—history suggests they won’t do it...

"As a practical matter, let’s just do what they’ve done for the last forty years in the region and shelve the territorial sovereignty issues and work on the functional problems. I hope that after we get past elections and transitions in East Asia, maybe we can move in that direction."

Much of this resonates with the advice from Sam Bateman that I flagged up a little while ago.

All worth remembering as the November summit season looms...

Wednesday, 17 October 2012

The passing of a "great survivor"

Milton Osborne chronicles the "remarkable odyssey of Norodom Sihanouk", as do many other obituaries. Osborne's Sihanouk: Prince of Light, Prince of Darkness (1994, Honolulu: University of Hawai'i Press) is still a great introduction to this complex figure.

The Bangkok Post interestingly catalogues reactions and background, as does Albeiro Rodas's blog.

Tuesday, 16 October 2012

Sanchita Basu Das on the ASEAN Economic Community

It is "highly unlikely", writes Sanchita Bas Das, the ASEAN Studies Centre's lead researcher on the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), "that ASEAN can achieve its target of building an AEC by 2015."

She substantiates that claim by working her way through the achievements and challenges of the four "pillars" of the AEC.

But nil desperandum. A foundation has been laid, and though time presses, "ASEAN economic integration efforts will not be derailed easily".

She concludes with some eminently sensible advice on the way forward:

"One way for ASEAN is to focus on 'core' elements of integration and implement them earnestly in the shortest possible time. This may include trade liberalisation, services liberalisation (at least the tourism sector), and measures to enhance connectivity, transparency and predictability in the region. The rest of the process, as envisaged in the AEC Blueprint, can follow beyond 2015."

Wednesday, 10 October 2012

"Cautious optimism" for the southern Philippines

The "Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro" may be the breakthrough that is needed to terminate a long-running insurgency in the southern Philippines.

This would be good news not only for the Philippines but also for the region.

Hopes on previous occasions have been dashed, but Joseph Franco explains why this time could be different, while reminding us that this is just one step on a much longer path to lasting peace.

UPDATE 10 October and 22 October: See also Steven Rood's insightful commentaries for The Interpreter and for the Asia Foundation.

Tuesday, 9 October 2012

Farish Noor urges regional spirit

I have given up apologizing for my inadequacies as a blogger...

But here's an article I have to draw attention to.

I, too, look forward to the "rise of pan-ASEAN global citizens"...