Pick of the fortnight: Powers, ASEAN, and Myanmar

• ISEAS has launched the quarterly Monitor, a socio-political survey of Southeast Asia – a welcome addition to the regional updates.
• In an interesting interview, ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan welcomes the new US engagement in SEA and in Asia more broadly. Asked whether this is “not a move by the US to contain China”, he offers a good summing up: “I think less so than the fact that the world would like to be reassured that this region is going to remain stable, peaceful and prosperous. I think the American attitude is that with less commitment and less involvement in the Middle East, they must look to where there are potential areas of instability that could affect the global economic recovery. When they look around for where best to go for global trade and investment to help them out of their own economic crisis, it’s got to be East Asia. It’s ASEAN. So their new pivot towards us is understandable. But what we don’t want is anyone coming in and bringing tension or confrontation. Everybody, including the US, is welcome on the basis of openness and fairness. To ensure that happens, ASEAN must learn to be a balancing mechanism, a fulcrum, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, of regional cooperation.”
• Joshua Ho, however, warns of the danger of “overstretching” the notion of ASEAN centrality, “especially if ASEAN states start to adopt an ‘inward-looking, it-is-all-about-ASEAN mentality’…  In light of the increasingly complex and multifaceted nature of global challenges, the tendency and temptation for ASEAN to look inwards and close in on itself will grow… The Bali Concord III which was signed last November by ASEAN leaders must not be used to justify an overly ASEAN-centric view of the world. Indeed such an outcome would paralyse the region whose very growth was founded upon its diverse and dynamic relationships its member states have with the wider world… [T]o what extent ASEAN is able to maintain its global engagement while at the same time keeping its own house in order will be a critical test of its readiness – and relevance – as a regional stakeholder.”
• And, a propos of powers and order more generally, Robert Ayson has a great piece at The Interpreter (21 Feb) on the kinds of common values we need “if the coming international order is going to be genuinely orderly”. These are values like accommodation, respectfulness, peacefulness, responsibility, and restraint – and they need to be stressed and promoted by all the powers in the region, large and small. The longer version is well worth reading.
• The ASEAN Secretariat reports that in a meeting on 17-19 February, the members of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR) “discussed and agreed on the structure and the elements” of the ASEAN Human Rights Declaration (AHRD), and “also agreed on the framework for discussion of the draft AHRD”. It notes: “The AICHR has received inputs from civil society groups on the AHRD. AICHR plans to hold regional consultations on the AHRD in the coming months to encourage more inputs.” This will be welcome, in light of criticism that too little consultation has taken place to date. Not surprisingly, achieving consensus on this issue is going to be difficult. But ASEAN has been here before. Incrementally, painfully – but still productively, I would argue – they manage to find a way forward. It may not be fast. It may not be ideal. But it is moving in the right direction. In the next round of debate and struggle, it’s important not to lose sight of how far the region has come in the last 10-20 years.
• Reuters reported last week (15 Feb) that “Myanmar's government expects to reach ceasefire deals with all of the country's ethnic minority rebel armies within three months,” citing Aung Min, the minister responsible for negotiating an end to the conflict. It’s an interesting report – let’s hope he’s right.
• Considering the huge changes that have taken place in Myanmar recently, Trevor Wilson, a former Australian ambassador to that country, notes: “Now the challenge for all concerned—Burmese and non-Burmese alike—is to manage the thaw better than they managed the freeze. The West can respond by gradually easing sanctions, as Australia has already begun to do, but very few countries have so far committed to this. Easing of sanctions should be done in a positive and generous manner, rather than with a grudging distrustful mindset, and without ‘moving the goalposts’. Aid donors should focus on how new international assistance can help the people of Burma make up for the years of deprivation and ensure that reforms, by virtue of their success, are irreversible.”